Have you ever wondered who decides how much money is circulating in the U.S. economy? That responsibility belongs to the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). The Federal Reserve (often called “the Fed”) runs monetary policy, which influences how much money is available in the financial system.
The money supply is used as a tool to influence two major outcomes:
Some economists describe these responsibilities as the Fed’s “dual mandate.” The challenge is that these goals often pull in opposite directions. Policies that encourage economic growth can also increase inflation, while policies that reduce inflation can slow economic growth.
Assume we’re in the middle of a recession. Thousands of jobs are being cut each week, and stock market values are dropping rapidly. One of the Fed’s goals is to stimulate economic growth, so it will try to revive economic activity.
A common way to do that is to increase the money supply, which tends to lower interest rates. With more money available to lend, banks and other financial institutions can charge less to borrow it.
Interest rate changes can reshape the economy because borrowing is central to the financial system. The government borrows money, businesses borrow money, and individuals borrow money.
When the Fed puts more money into the system, banks can lend at lower interest rates. Lower borrowing costs can lead to a chain reaction:
This is why falling interest rates can create a “positive” domino effect on economic activity.
Putting more money into the system “loosens” (expands) the money supply. As interest rates fall, businesses and consumers are more likely to buy goods and services because borrowing is cheaper.
Economic health is often measured using Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total value of goods and services produced domestically. When spending rises, GDP often rises as well.
At first, this sounds ideal - so why not keep interest rates low all the time? The main constraint is inflation. In a world with limited resources, adding more money to the system can eventually push prices higher.
Let’s use a simple thought exercise. The world has a limited supply of oil. If every person in the world magically received $1 billion, oil prices would likely surge. Even though everyone has more money, the amount of oil in the ground hasn’t changed.
Because of this risk, the Fed watches inflation closely. When inflation rises more than usual, the dual mandate pushes the Fed to shift attention from stimulating growth to reducing inflation.
Inflation is a general rise in prices, as discussed in depth in the preferred stock unit. Inflation is often considered acceptable when it’s around 2% per year. When prices rise rapidly and unpredictably, it can create serious economic problems.
When the Fed sees inflation rising more than usual, it may act to reduce it. To manage inflation, the Fed does the opposite of loosening: it removes significant amounts of money from the financial system.
With less money available:
This is known as “tightening” (contracting) the money supply. Higher borrowing costs usually reduce spending on goods and services. That can slow economic growth (and often does), but it can also bring inflation down over time. When demand falls, prices tend to rise more slowly - and may even drop - especially when people have more incentive to save rather than spend.
The Fed constantly faces a double-edged sword:
Because the Fed’s actions can involve billions (if not trillions) of dollars, its decisions can strongly influence the economy. Some economists even describe the Fed as one of the most powerful organizations in the world.
Although many factors affect economic conditions, those who subscribe to Monetarist theory argue that the Fed’s control of the money supply is the primary driver of the economy.
The Fed pursues economic growth and manageable inflation through monetary policy. In the next chapter, you’ll look at the specific tools the Fed uses to pursue these goals.
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